A Special Report on Climate Change in the Mediterranean.
Last week I was in New York City for my work, attending the United Nations General Assembly meetings and Climate Week.
It got me thinking about climate change in our beloved Mediterranean region, and what we can expect for the future.
In this blog I share what I am learning about climate change impacts on the Mediterranean, and what might lie ahead for our Mediterranean lifestyles.
Sustainable development is my career, sustainable living is my passion.
Climate Change in the Mediterranean I A Special Report
Climate Change in the Mediterranean
Current Facts
The Mediterranean region is warming 20% faster than the global average.
Impacts will exert additional pressure on already strained ecosystems and on vulnerable economies and societies.
Coastal zones face heightened disaster risks, including flooding and erosion, and the salinisation of river deltas and aquifers that sustain food security and livelihoods.
By 2050, water demand is projected to double or even triple.
2°C global warming will reduce precipitation by ~10 to 15%.
An increase of 2°C to 4°C would reduce precipitation by up to 30% in Southern Europe.
Water temperature is expected to rise by between 1.8°C and 3.5°C by 2100 with hotspots in Spain and in in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“Climate change in the Mediterranean is already evident with more frequent and more intense heat waves with temperatures continuously above 30 to 40 °C and increasing / extended periods of drought since the 1950s. In addition, rapid changes in the water cycle due to climate change are putting sever strain on natural ecosystems, in an already a water scarce region.” - European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMED)
What is driving climate change in the Mediterranean?
“Mediterranean climate change has been observed at a magnitude exceeding global means, despite the fact that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Mediterranean countries lies at relatively low levels.” - European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMED)
The European Institute of the Mediterranean zooms in on population growth and increasing urbanisation as accelerators of climate change in the Mediterranean:
“The combination of changes in lifestyle and demand patterns have resulted in growing demands for water, energy and food in the Mediterranean Basin. The overexploitation of existing water reservoirs and groundwater aquifers and the enhanced utilisation of ecosystem services has led to stress on environmental integrity, in addition to already apparent impacts of ongoing climate changes.” - - European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMED)
Researchers from MIT found that the drying of the Mediterranean region is a result of the collision of two different effects of a warming climate: a change in the dynamics air circulation and a reduction in the temperature difference between land and sea:
“It just happened that the geography of where the Mediterranean is, and where the mountains are, impacts the pattern of air flow high in the atmosphere in a way that creates a high pressure area over the Mediterranean. That high-pressure area creates a dry zone with little precipitation." - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Climate Change in the Mediterranean
Future Outlook
“The Mediterranean region will be significantly drier in coming decades, potentially seeing 40 percent less precipitation during the winter rainy season - which shows the greatest decline of projected rainfall of any landmass on Earth." - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Year-round, millions of visitors from all over the world flock to enjoy the mild climate, wine and food, and stunning scenery. However, climate change may harshen the Mediterranean climate and disrupt vital industries such as tourism and agriculture.” - McKinsey Global Institute
Climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean, from McKinsey:
"The mean temperature in the Mediterranean basin has increased 1.4 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, compared with the global average of 1.1 degrees—and temperatures are projected to increase by an additional 1.5 degrees by 2050." - McKinsey Global Institute
Rising temperatures are expected to noticeably change the Mediterranean climate:
Heat: Climate projections indicate that the number of days with a maximum temperature above 37 degrees will increase everywhere in the Mediterranean region, with a doubling in northern Africa, southern Spain, and Turkey from 30 to 60 by 2050.
Drought: In Italy, Portugal, Spain, and parts of Greece and Turkey, rainfall during the warm, dry season of April through September is projected to decrease by as much as 10 percent by 2030 and as much as 20 percent by 2050. By 2050, drought conditions could prevail for at least six months out of every year in these areas.
Water stress: Many basins could see a decline of approximately 10 percent in water supplies by 2030 and of up to 25 percent by 2050. Water stress is already high in most countries in the Mediterranean and extremely high in Morocco and Libya. The decline in supply is projected to heighten water stress in all Mediterranean countries between now and 2050, with the greatest increases in Greece, Morocco, and Spain.
Wildfires: Increased levels of heat and dryness are projected to cause larger areas—up to double the current areas on the Iberian Peninsula—to burn from wildfires.
Disease: High summer temperatures have also been linked with the increasing incidence of West Nile fever in Europe. The summer of 2019 saw the first reported case of West Nile virus infection as far north as Germany. Researchers have already projected that the West Nile virus is likely to spread by 2025 and to spread further by 2050.
Climate Change in the Mediterranean
Adaptation of the Mediterranean Lifestyle?
Back to the future…
All that I am learning about the secrets of the Mediterranean Lifestyle point to honouring Mediterranean traditions from the past - and letting go of many lifestyle norms we bring with us from other regions.
The Mediterranean Lifestyle respects and understands how to live symbiotically with the Mediterranean environment.
That includes heat, drought, and locally sourced energy and food.
My learnings about the Mediterranean lifestyle suggest that we might look more to the past when considering how to prepare for climate change across the region - Embracing the traditions of the Mediterranean Lifestyle and limiting disruptive globalised lifestyle trends.
MED HOME
How can we prepare our homes for increasing / extended periods of heat?
Traditional Mediterranean architecture and design cleverly, and beautifully, create living spaces with natural air-conditioning - with particular attention to creating shade, and air circulation.
This is where we can let go of lifestyle norms we might bring with us from other regions - like energy intensive air conditioners and architecture trends from cooler climates which favour the use of heat-incubating glass (i.e. floor to ceiling windows) and fire-risk wood.
In our globalised world, we are seeing that fashionable design and architecture from more temperate climates are being adopted in dry and tropical climates - where imported designs and materials perform inadequately in the heat, leading to dependency on artificial air-conditioning.
If you are interested in learning more about “Keeping it Cool” in our homes as temperatures rise, I highly recommend this insightful book from my friend and colleague, Marlyne Sahakian, Professor and Researcher at the University of Geneva: Keeping Cool in Southeast Asia, Energy Consumption and Urban Air-Conditioning.
MED GARDEN
How can we prepare our gardens for less water?
Traditional Mediterranean Gardens utilise native, drought tolerant plants - plants that drink during the wet winter season and need little watering in the long dry summers.
This is where we can let go of the water loving plants we cherished when we lived in other more temperate regions - like hydrangeas - and instead embrace the beautiful new world of Mediterranean native plants and succulents.
Learn more about water-wise gardening in my blog: 7 Tips for Mastering your Mediterranean Garden
In addition, new reforestation and soil regeneration approaches such as the Miyawaki and Syntropic agriculture methods improve dry soil environments to retain more water to combat desertification - and the plant density approach of the methods has the added benefit of creating more shade!
Learn more about the Miyawaki and Syntropic approaches in my blog: How to Create a Mini Food Forest in your Mediterranean Garden
To combat forest fires:
“Most regions in the Mediterranean will need to invest in adaptation. For example, forests can be made more resilient to wildfire risk by planting fire-resistant trees, reducing the amount of easily burning fuel available (such as leaf litter and brush).” - McKinsey Global Institute
MED FOOD & WINE
What about the Mediterranean diet?
“Nearly half of the Mediterranean region’s agricultural production value comes from four crops: grapes (14 percent), wheat, tomatoes, and olives (9 percent each). Of the last three, Mediterranean countries produce about 90 percent of the total global supply.” - McKinsey Global Institute
Traditional Mediterranean Diets are primarily plant-based, abundant in fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts, plus a preference for fish over red meat for healthy fats and proteins.
This is where we can let go of red meat, or consume sparingly. Globalised lifestyle preferences for red meat are a known factor in increasing global GHG emissions. …
Learn more about the Mediterranean Diet in my blog: Mediterranean Diet Hacks
Learn more about the impacts of climate change on food in the Mediterranean from the Economist Intelligence Unit report, “Fixing Food: The Mediterranean Region”
Grow Your Own Food!
The Biggest Mini Forest Approach and the Orchard of Flavours project, accredited by Botanic Garden Conservation International are experimenting with growing an expanded set of edible plant species, planned to produce food for several generations without relying on any chemical fertilisers or pesticides.
An adaptation solution to climate change and to prepare our food basket regions in the Mediterranean for the future. It is enormously inspiring.
Learn more about Mini Food Forests in my blog: How to Create a Mini Food Forest in your Mediterranean Garden
What about Mediterranean wine?
McKinsey’s case study estimates that climate change is likely to alter the production of grapes and wine in the period to 2050.
“Production from traditional winemaking regions could diminish as the Mediterranean climate changes, since grapevines are highly sensitive to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation and can also be impacted by water stress and hail damage. As the Mediterranean region becomes warmer, it is also likely that specific grape varieties will no longer grow where they do now, while at the same time the opportunity to plant new varieties may rise. Certain growing areas in Italy, Portugal, and Spain could experience large declines in production.” - McKinsey Global Institute
MED TRAVEL
How will climate change affect our Med Travel?
“Travel and tourism, including indirect and induced impacts, generate about 15 percent of the GDP of Mediterranean countries on average. In certain areas, the local economy depends much more on tourism.
(Popular Med Travel destinations) are projected to experience a significant increase in the number of summer (June to August) days above 37 degrees. Mediterranean tourism destinations could adapt to climate change by extending their shoulder seasons as the Mediterranean climate changes.” - McKinsey Global Institute
Spring and Fall have always been a beautiful time to explore different regions of the Med. Climate change, and projected hotter summers, may make the shoulder seasons the most popular in the Med - and Med winters may become the new shoulder season...
If you are thinking about climate change impacts on the Mediterranean, and what might lie ahead for our Mediterranean lifestyles in the future, I hope that this blog has provided some useful insights.
The planet is being forced to adapt to climate change.
Traditional Mediterranean Lifestyles can offer a thing or two about how to create a beautiful life, even amongst heat and drought…
Pondering the future….Embracing the Mediterranean Lifestyle!
Jade
Lewon
Med
Great tips!